An intertemporal analysis of post-FCTC era household tobacco consumption in Pakistan

Since the ratification of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004, Pakistan has taken various measures of tobacco control. This study examines how these tobacco control measures are associated with change in household-level tobacco consumption patterns in Pakistan over the decade (2005 to 2016) after FCTC ratification. We used multiple waves of the household survey data of Pakistan from 2004–2005 to 2015–2016 for analyzing household-level tobacco use. We find that tobacco consumption remains at a significantly high level (45.5%) in Pakistan despite the recent declining trend in the post-FCTC era. During the preparatory phase of FCTC implementation between 2005 and 2008, the smoking rate was on the rise, and smokeless tobacco use was declining. Over the implementation phase of FCTC policies between 2008 and 2016, the pattern of change in tobacco use reversed—the smoking rate started to decrease while smokeless tobacco use started to rise. However, the decrease in the smoking rate was slower and the increase in smokeless tobacco use at the national level was driven by an increase among the poor and middle-income households. These trends resulted in the growing burden of tobacco expenditure among the poor and middle-income households relative to the wealthier households.