Contemporary evaluation of mortality and stroke risk after thoracic endovascular aortic repair

Objective During the past decade, thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) has increased as a treatment option for a variety of aortic pathologic processes. Despite this rise in the use of thoracic stent grafts, real-world outcomes from a robust, adjudicated, contemporary data set have yet to be reported. Previous studies have shown periprocedural mortality rates between 1.5% and 9.5% and procedure-related stroke rates of 2.3% to 8.2%. With advances in device engineering and increased experience of physicians, we hypothesized that the rates of these complications would be reduced in a more recent sample set. The purpose of this study was to determine current rates of mortality and stroke after TEVAR, to identify risk factors that contribute to 30-day mortality, and to develop a simple scoring system that allows risk stratification of patients undergoing TEVAR. Methods We examined the 30-day mortality rate after TEVAR using the 2013 to 2014 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Patients undergoing TEVAR for all aortic disease were identified using procedure codes. Bivariate analyses were performed to evaluate the association of preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative variables with 30-day mortality, followed by multivariable logistic analysis using preoperative variables only, with P <.10 as the criterion for model entry. The predictive logistic model was internally validated by cross-validation. Variables included in the multivariable model were used to develop a risk score. Results There were 826 patients included. The 30-day mortality and stroke rates were 7.63% (n = 63) and 4.5% (n = 37), respectively. In regression analysis, mortality was independently associated with age ≥80 years (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.25-4.31), emergency case (OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.39-4.90), American Society of Anesthesiologists classification >3 (OR, 2.89; 95% CI, 1.34-6.24), transfusion >4 units in the 72 hours before surgery (OR, 2.86; 95% CI, 1.30-6.28), preoperative creatinine concentration ≥1.8 mg/dL (OR, 2.07; 95% CI, 1.05-4.08), and preoperative white blood cell count ≥12 × 10⁹/L (OR, 2.65; 95% CI, 1.41-4.96). Incorporating these factors, a 6-point risk score was generated and demonstrated high predictability for overall 30-day mortality. Conclusions Recent data from a national, retrospective data set demonstrate that high perioperative mortality and stroke rates have persisted during the last decade. The risk score derived from this data set is simple and convenient and serves as a prognostic tool in the preoperative risk stratification of patients being evaluated for TEVAR.