Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao; Philip K. Maini

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

Arni S.R. Srinivasa Rao, Philip K. Maini

Epidemiology

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Chapter

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

Original language	English (US)
Title of host publication	UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics
Publisher	Springer International Publishing
Pages	257-261
Number of pages	5
ISBN (Electronic)	9783319254548
ISBN (Print)	9783319254524
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33
State	Published - Jan 1 2016

ASJC Scopus subject areas

General Mathematics

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

Cite this

@inbook{e0fbd6b730ed4c6a90ae3ede4070e764,

title = "Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling",

abstract = "The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.",

author = "{Srinivasa Rao}, {Arni S.R.} and Maini, {Philip K.}",

year = "2016",

month = jan,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33",

language = "English (US)",

isbn = "9783319254524",

pages = "257--261",

booktitle = "UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics",

publisher = "Springer International Publishing",

}

TY - CHAP

T1 - Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

AU - Srinivasa Rao, Arni S.R.

AU - Maini, Philip K.

PY - 2016/1/1

Y1 - 2016/1/1

N2 - The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

AB - The third phase of the National AIDS Control Programme in India (NACP III) was launched in July 2007. To help the planning team set appropriate targets, we were asked to predict the number of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) under different intervention protocols. Using a dynamical systems approach to model the time evolution of disease, we predicted that if 50% of the targets in NACP III were reached, then there would be 2.08 million PLHIV by 2011. This prediction was published in 2009 and compared very well with the 2.089 million PLHIV estimated by the Indian government at the end of 2011. This success ofmathematical modelling encouraged the Indian government to integrate mathematical modelling into their decision making process.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85017061276&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85017061276&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

DO - 10.1007/978-3-319-25454-8_33

M3 - Chapter

AN - SCOPUS:85017061276

SN - 9783319254524

SP - 257

EP - 261

BT - UK Success Stories in Industrial Mathematics

PB - Springer International Publishing

ER -

Influencing HIV/AIDS policy in India through mathematical modelling

Abstract

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this