Keeping pace: The conditional probability of accounting academics to continue publishing in elite accounting journals

The current benchmarking literature examining faculty productivity provides limited evidence about the expected future research output of experienced faculty members who have published at least one article in an elite accounting journal. We examine the conditional probability of accounting academics who have published in an elite accounting journal (i.e., Top 6 ranked publication) to continue publishing in elite accounting journals, using accounting faculty earning their doctorate between 1990 and 2005 and publishing at least one elite accounting journal article through 2011. We begin by estimating the conditional probability of future publications in elite accounting journals, given the faculty member has published at least one elite accounting journal article within the first four (seven) years post-graduation. Faculty publishing one article in an elite accounting journal within the first four (seven) years post-graduation have a conditional probability of approximately 61% (53%) of publishing at least one additional elite accounting journal article through 2011. We also find that faculty with at least one elite journal article publication in the fourth through sixth years following graduation have a higher conditional probability (66%) of publishing an additional elite journal article than faculty publishing an article in an elite journal by the end of their third post-graduation year (conditional probability of 59%). Given that institutions often have a choice about whether to hire new or experienced faculty, the results of this study provide institutions with additional information beyond that available in the current faculty benchmarking resources regarding the expected future lifetime productivity of experienced faculty.