Predictors of Time to Metastasis in Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer

Objective To investigate predictors of time to metastasis among men treated with androgen deprivation therapy for nonmetastatic prostate cancer who developed castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) within the Shared Equal Access Regional Cancer Hospital cohort. Methods This is a retrospective analysis of 458 nonmetastatic CRPC men. Metastases were detected in routine bone scans or other imaging tests. Predictors of time to metastasis were analyzed using proportional hazards model with CRPC as time zero. Results A total of 256 (56%) men were diagnosed with metastatic disease over a median follow-up of 36 months. Metastasis-free survival was 79%, 65%, 52%, 47%, and 41% at 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years after CRPC, respectively. In multivariable analysis, Gleason score 8-10 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.61; P = .026), receiving primary localized treatment (HR = 1.38; P = .028), higher prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels at CRPC diagnosis (logPSA HR = 1.64; P < .001), and PSA doubling time ≤6 months (HR = 1.42; P = .040) were independently associated with shorter time to metastasis. Race, year of CRPC, age, and time from androgen deprivation therapy to CRPC were not associated with metastasis. Conclusion Among nonmetastatic CRPC men, nearly 60% developed metastatic disease during the first 5 years, with most of the metastasis occurring within the first 3 years. Higher Gleason score, receiving primary treatment, higher PSA, and shorter PSA doubling time were independently associated with shorter time to metastasis. Therefore, these variables can be used to stratify patients according to metastasis risk.