TY - JOUR
T1 - Implementation of a vaccination program based on epidemic geospatial attributes
T2 - Covid-19 pandemic in ohio as a case study and proof of concept
AU - Awad, Susanne F.
AU - Musuka, Godfrey
AU - Mukandavire, Zindoga
AU - Froass, Dillon
AU - Mackinnon, Neil J.
AU - Cuadros, Diego F.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland.
PY - 2021/11
Y1 - 2021/11
N2 - Geospatial vaccine uptake is a critical factor in designing strategies that maximize the population-level impact of a vaccination program. This study uses an innovative spatiotemporal model to assess the impact of vaccination distribution strategies based on disease geospatial attributes and population-level risk assessment. For proof of concept, we adapted a spatially explicit COVID-19 model to investigate a hypothetical geospatial targeting of COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Ohio, United States, at the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic. The population-level deterministic compartmental model, incorporating spatial-geographic components at the county level, was formulated using a set of differential equations stratifying the population according to vaccination status and disease epidemiological characteristics. Three different hypothetical scenarios focusing on geographical sub-population targeting (areas with high versus low infection intensity) were investigated. Our results suggest that a vaccine program that distributes vaccines equally across the entire state effectively averts infections and hospitalizations (2954 and 165 cases, respectively). However, in a context with equitable vaccine allocation, the number of COVID-19 cases in high infection intensity areas will remain high; the cumulative number of cases remained >30,000 cases. A vaccine program that initially targets high infection intensity areas has the most significant impact in reducing new COVID-19 cases and infection-related hospitalizations (3756 and 213 infections, respectively). Our approach demonstrates the importance of factoring geospatial attributes to the design and implementation of vaccination programs in a context with limited resources during the early stage of the vaccine rollout.
AB - Geospatial vaccine uptake is a critical factor in designing strategies that maximize the population-level impact of a vaccination program. This study uses an innovative spatiotemporal model to assess the impact of vaccination distribution strategies based on disease geospatial attributes and population-level risk assessment. For proof of concept, we adapted a spatially explicit COVID-19 model to investigate a hypothetical geospatial targeting of COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Ohio, United States, at the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic. The population-level deterministic compartmental model, incorporating spatial-geographic components at the county level, was formulated using a set of differential equations stratifying the population according to vaccination status and disease epidemiological characteristics. Three different hypothetical scenarios focusing on geographical sub-population targeting (areas with high versus low infection intensity) were investigated. Our results suggest that a vaccine program that distributes vaccines equally across the entire state effectively averts infections and hospitalizations (2954 and 165 cases, respectively). However, in a context with equitable vaccine allocation, the number of COVID-19 cases in high infection intensity areas will remain high; the cumulative number of cases remained >30,000 cases. A vaccine program that initially targets high infection intensity areas has the most significant impact in reducing new COVID-19 cases and infection-related hospitalizations (3756 and 213 infections, respectively). Our approach demonstrates the importance of factoring geospatial attributes to the design and implementation of vaccination programs in a context with limited resources during the early stage of the vaccine rollout.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Disease mapping
KW - Geospatial attributes
KW - Mathematical model
KW - Spatial epidemiology
KW - Vaccination program
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U2 - 10.3390/vaccines9111242
DO - 10.3390/vaccines9111242
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85118168751
SN - 2076-393X
VL - 9
JO - Vaccines
JF - Vaccines
IS - 11
M1 - 1242
ER -